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How Many Points; for automatic promotion ?
Topic Started: Mar 5 2007, 10:41 PM (542 Views)
pop_pop
Frank Worthington
[ *  *  *  *  * ]
bluetooth
Mar 5 2007, 10:41 PM
I know we talked about this but it was some time ago and the table is clearer (ish). I reckon we need about 88 to be sure of automatic promo. That means 21 points from 11 games - less than 2 points per game - should be possible surely. How many points does everyone else feel ?

11 X 3 = 33 Should do it :silence:
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proccy_blues
Joe Bradford
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i hate negativity, but i can't see us grabbing either of the automatic promotion spots to be honest.

1/ we're not playing well

2/ the pitch is a hindrance

3/ we have the hardest run-in by far

4/ our rivals have relatively easy run-ins AND they all appear to be playing well....

can someone cheer me up please??? :(
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johnnyboy
Jose Dominguez
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Unfortunately only 96 pts will guarranty promotion.
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bluetooth
Geoff Horsfield
[ *  *  *  *  * ]
proccysotv
Mar 7 2007, 08:19 AM
i hate negativity, but i can't see us grabbing either of the automatic promotion spots to be honest.

1/ we're not playing well

2/ the pitch is a hindrance

3/ we have the hardest run-in by far

4/ our rivals have relatively easy run-ins AND they all appear to be playing well....

can someone cheer me up please??? :(

I'll try.
The fewer games there are left, the harder it is to catch up. So, for example, a 4 point cushion such as we have means that the chasers have to win 2 games more than us out of 10 left to just catch us up. That assumes we don't get any points in those two games.
Also, the closer the season end it gets, the more obvious it is that some of the teams challenging now won't get promoted - that hits their morale and helps us. Southampton is a good example - they are right on the fringe at the moment and when we play them in a couple of weeks could be out of it.
It's also true we have to play a lot of the top teams but our record against the top sides is good, we play a number at home Derby and S'ton. We've got Coventry, Sheff Weds and Burnley at home also and should do ok against them.
We also have a game in hand over all of the close chasers. If, and I know it's a big if, we beat Derby we would be 7 points above the play off places. The chasers have to win 3 games out of their remaining 10 just to catch us.
I'm not over confident and it could still go horribly wrong but I would rather be where we are than swap for any other team in the fizzy pop.
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proccy_blues
Joe Bradford
[ *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  * ]
bluetooth
Mar 7 2007, 10:35 AM
proccysotv
Mar 7 2007, 08:19 AM
i hate negativity, but i can't see us grabbing either of the automatic promotion spots to be honest.

1/ we're not playing well

2/ the pitch is a hindrance

3/ we have the hardest run-in by far

4/ our rivals have relatively easy run-ins AND they all appear to be playing well....

can someone cheer me up please???  :(

I'll try.
The fewer games there are left, the harder it is to catch up. So, for example, a 4 point cushion such as we have means that the chasers have to win 2 games more than us out of 10 left to just catch us up. That assumes we don't get any points in those two games.
Also, the closer the season end it gets, the more obvious it is that some of the teams challenging now won't get promoted - that hits their morale and helps us. Southampton is a good example - they are right on the fringe at the moment and when we play them in a couple of weeks could be out of it.
It's also true we have to play a lot of the top teams but our record against the top sides is good, we play a number at home Derby and S'ton. We've got Coventry, Sheff Weds and Burnley at home also and should do ok against them.
We also have a game in hand over all of the close chasers. If, and I know it's a big if, we beat Derby we would be 7 points above the play off places. The chasers have to win 3 games out of their remaining 10 just to catch us.
I'm not over confident and it could still go horribly wrong but I would rather be where we are than swap for any other team in the fizzy pop.

as the teachers say, must try harder.... :D
thanks anyway... :(
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tim
Member Avatar
Malcom Page
[ *  *  *  *  * ]
bluetooth
Mar 7 2007, 10:35 AM
proccysotv
Mar 7 2007, 08:19 AM
i hate negativity, but i can't see us grabbing either of the automatic promotion spots to be honest.

1/ we're not playing well

2/ the pitch is a hindrance

3/ we have the hardest run-in by far

4/ our rivals have relatively easy run-ins AND they all appear to be playing well....

can someone cheer me up please???  :(

I'll try.
The fewer games there are left, the harder it is to catch up. So, for example, a 4 point cushion such as we have means that the chasers have to win 2 games more than us out of 10 left to just catch us up. That assumes we don't get any points in those two games.
Also, the closer the season end it gets, the more obvious it is that some of the teams challenging now won't get promoted - that hits their morale and helps us. Southampton is a good example - they are right on the fringe at the moment and when we play them in a couple of weeks could be out of it.
It's also true we have to play a lot of the top teams but our record against the top sides is good, we play a number at home Derby and S'ton. We've got Coventry, Sheff Weds and Burnley at home also and should do ok against them.
We also have a game in hand over all of the close chasers. If, and I know it's a big if, we beat Derby we would be 7 points above the play off places. The chasers have to win 3 games out of their remaining 10 just to catch us.
I'm not over confident and it could still go horribly wrong but I would rather be where we are than swap for any other team in the fizzy pop.

Spot on bluetooth.

We could be 7 points clear of 3rd on Friday and don't forget WBA play Wolves on Sunday, so either one or both of those are going to drop points and have one less game to play.

IMO we need 21 points out of 11 games to ensure promotion.

Come on lads.
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Bluediver
Member Avatar
Alex Govan
[ *  *  *  *  * ]
bluetooth
Mar 7 2007, 10:35 AM

I'll try.
The fewer games there are left, the harder it is to catch up. So, for example, a 4 point cushion such as we have means that the chasers have to win 2 games more than us out of 10 left to just catch us up. That assumes we don't get any points in those two games.
Also, the closer the season end it gets, the more obvious it is that some of the teams challenging now won't get promoted - that hits their morale and helps us. Southampton is a good example - they are right on the fringe at the moment and when we play them in a couple of weeks could be out of it.
It's also true we have to play a lot of the top teams but our record against the top sides is good, we play a number at home Derby and S'ton. We've got Coventry, Sheff Weds and Burnley at home also and should do ok against them.
We also have a game in hand over all of the close chasers. If, and I know it's a big if, we beat Derby we would be 7 points above the play off places. The chasers have to win 3 games out of their remaining 10 just to catch us.
I'm not over confident and it could still go horribly wrong but I would rather be where we are than swap for any other team in the fizzy pop. [/QUOTE]
I like your style! To be honest you've convinced me.

I think Friday's result will massively influence the outcome. And I can see us beating a tired Derby on a cloggy pitch that drains energy from aching legs. That would be a massive boost. And if we can just recapture some of the previous form that saw us getting three goals every game, in other words in McSheff recaptures his form, then really we shoud get an automatic spot quite easily......

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